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Later report from the NordICC trial registered as NCT00883792, in The Lancet (2026); its title describes an updated or longer-term analysis.
Background: We previously reported the 10-year effects of colonoscopy screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Here, we report the effects after 13 years of follow-up.
Methods: In this multicountry, population-based randomised controlled trial, 84 583 men and women aged 55-64 years at enrolment from Norway, Poland, and Sweden were randomly allocated (1:2) to colonoscopy screening or no screening and analysed. The primary outcomes were colorectal cancer incidence and mortality after 10-15 years of follow-up in intention-to-screen analyses, with first analysis after 10 years, and repeated every other year or at longer intervals. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00883792, and is ongoing.
Findings: At 13 years of follow-up, colorectal cancer incidence was 375 colorectal cancers (1·46%) of 28 217 individuals in the screening group and 912 colorectal cancers (1·80%) of 56 366 individuals in the no-screening group. The risk ratio (RR) was 0·81 (95% CI 0·71-0·90) in intention-to-screen analyses and 0·55 (0·33-0·81) in per-protocol analyses. The risk for proximal colorectal cancer was 129 (0·51%) in the screening group versus 283 (0·56%) in the no-screening group (RR 0·91 [0·71-1·09]), and the risk for distal colorectal cancer was 224 (0·87%) in the screening group versus 563 (1·11%) in the no-screening group (RR 0·79 [0·65-0·89]; interaction p<0·0001). In men, the colorectal cancer risk was 214 (1·69%) of 14 154 in the screening group and 541 (2·19%) of 28 247 in the no-screening group (RR 0·77 [0·64 to -0·88]); in women, the risk was 161 (1·24%) of 14 063 in the screening group versus 371 (1·43%) of 28 119 in the no-screening group (RR 0·87 [0·70 to 1·02]; interaction p<0·0001). Colorectal cancer mortality was 106 (0·41%) of 28 217 in the screening group and 236 (0·47%) of 56 366 in the no-screening group (intention-to-screen RR 0·88 [0·68-1·08], per-protocol RR 0·70 [0·26-1·25]). The observed colorectal cancer mortality in the non-screening group (0·47%) was substantially lower than expected at the time of designing the trial (0·82%).
Interpretation: One colonoscopy significantly reduced colorectal cancer incidence but not mortality over 13 years. Colorectal cancer mortality was lower in both study groups than when the trial was designed.
Funding: The Norwegian Research Council, the Nordic Cancer Union, the Norwegian Cancer Society, and the Health Fund of South-East Norway.
Indexed on Europe PMC as PubMed record 42102826 (DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(26)00508-8). Its abstract cites the registry id NCT00883792, which is how it was matched to this trial; no figure has been checked by an editor.
A second publication from the NordICC trial, later than the first and described in its title as an update or longer-term analysis. Read it with the primary publication linked from the trial page; the record was linked automatically and its figures have not been checked by hand.
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